First Thoughts on 2009 Player Rankings
It’s mid May and I have an insatiable urge to draft my first real fantasy football team. Studying player rankings and participating in mock drafts is fun, but it’s no where close to the real thing. However, it’s all we have for the next few months. I’ve checked out about 20 rankings lists and have noticed quite a few interesting things about the upcoming season.
1. The RB pool is pretty flat, even at the top. There are 12 RBs that I could easily see in the top 5. In years past an LT pick at the top could give you a big edge. Adrian Peterson, while dominant on the field, just does not offer the same fantasy separation that gives his owners an edge. Late first round guys like Brandon Jacobs and Frank Gore could easily surpass him in fantasy points, especially with all the different scoring formats. Peterson, Westbrook, Turner, MJD, Forte, Tomlinson, D. Williams, Gore, C. Johnson, Barber, Jackson, Portis, Jacobs, and even Pierre Thomas and Steve Slaton can all be studs in the right scoring format. We may see more first round variance than ever this year as everyone argues the merits of the above names.
2. Not only is the RB pool flat, it’s also quite deep. Guys like Darren McFadden, Willie Parker, Cedric Benson, Julius Jones, Ryan Grant, Jonathan Stewart, and Derrick Ward are falling to the 4th-7th rounds. These guys could put up RB2 numbers and are great RB3 options. This is the deepest fantasy RB class I’ve ever seen. In PPR leagues I would definitely suggest loading up on elite WRs and a QB early and taking two or three of these guys in the 5th-7th. In standard leagues just pay attention to the flow of your draft, but know that you can wait a bit longer than usual for quality RB2s and 3s.
3. Waiting on a QB may not be as good of a strategy as it has been in years past. Last season Aaron Rodgers and Kurt Warner were hanging out in the 10th round and I targeted them in every league. It worked out well for me. Two years ago it was Tony Romo. Who is it this year? I’m not seeing anyone obvious, at least no yet. On the flipside, Brees, Brady, Manning, Warner, and Rivers could all have monster seasons. If I can get any of these guys in the fourth round it will be tough for me not to pull the trigger, especially with the RB talent that will be falling. If I don’t grab one of those guys I will be targeting McNabb, who should be available in the 6th or 7th round of standard 12 man leagues. At that ADP he could be the best value QB in the draft, but still far from the great values of Warner and Rodgers last season. If you do want to play the waiting game, take two of these guys in the 8th-11th: Carson Palmer, Matt Schaub, or Matt Hasselbeck. All of them are primed for nice bounceback seasons, but try to get two of them just for insurance.